Kostyuk–Samsonova moneyline at FanDuel: 8.2% soft to sharp consensus, 16 hours before first serve
What happened: Final score: 1–2. The edge paid: the flagged side won, returning +2.80 units on a flat 1-unit stake. The closing line moved against the signal (-27.0% CLV) — honest note: on this one, the market did not confirm the edge. For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 18 hours after detection before the edge closed.
Omenizer detected 124 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair near close — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.
The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written 16 hours before start and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.
At detection—16 hours before Marta Kostyuk takes on Liudmila Samsonova on the WTA Tour—one side of the moneyline market has split from the field. FanDuel is quoting decimal 3.80 on one outcome, a price that sits 8.2% above the fair value independent sharp operators have established. The edge remains active at this writing, not yet absorbed into consensus.
The FanDuel quote lands 2.3 standard deviations away from where professional consensus clusters—a statistical distance that marks structural mispricing rather than everyday market scatter.
That consensus baseline draws from 3 independent sharp sources, anchoring fair value across distributed professional models rather than isolating it to a single bookmaker's view.
The signal aligns with 1 historically profitable pattern in our database—the strongest comparable iteration has returned +8.6% on settled wagers.
Tennis moneyline edges in this odds range have posted +5.8% ROI across 4181 settled bets tracked in our records.
Mispricings at this scale do not typically persist to first serve. In comparable moneyline markets, historical edges have compressed toward consensus within roughly 7 hours of detection.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Jiri Lehecka vs Stefanos Tsitsipas
· ATP World Tour · Tennis — flagged side Stefanos Tsitsipas
@ 2.69
90Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+4.7%
Shin
+4.1%
Power
+6.0%
Additive
+4.7%
Balanced
-5.4%
Worst case
+6.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
Price is 3.3σ from market consensus.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
Betano
2.69
+5.1%
bet105
2.66
+3.9%
SX.bet
2.63
+2.7%
Matchbook
2.63
+2.7%
Prophet X
2.63
+2.7%
Tailgate Exchange
2.63
+2.7%
STN Sports
2.62
+2.3%
Betfair Exchange
2.62
+2.3%
Betfair Exchange (AU)
2.62
+2.3%
4cx
2.61
+1.9%
Novig
2.60
+1.6%
Winpot
2.60
+1.6%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.69 odds → 37% implied win probability
39%
Fair win probability
+6.2% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+3.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Sep 03, 13:10 UTC at 3.00 (+6.0% edge) → fair price at close 2.63 → closing-line value +7.5%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.00 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Marta Kostyuk vs Liudmila Samsonova
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Sep 18, 2026 02:37 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).