ITF Women · Tennis · Aug 03, 2026 16:00 UTC · avg book margin 8.0%
Ava CatanzaritevsMartina Okalova
Catanzarite–Okalova moneyline was 13.7% soft at DraftKings; market tightened before play, closing line validated the catch
Omenizer detected 8 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair near close — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.
The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written before the game and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.
Hours ahead of Ava Catanzarite vs Martina Okalova (ITF Women), the moneyline at DraftKings quoted decimal odds of 2.10 — a 13.7% deviation above what sharp consensus implied. The board identified the misprice while liquidity remained available to bettors willing to act before the match began.
Match settled 1–0. A single wager at the flagged price lost. Individual results sit buried under variance; what matters is whether the market moved in the right direction.
Between detection and the start of play, the market shifted +1.3% toward the flagged side — that price motion signals edge validity. Professionals measure edges via closing-line value, not outcomes alone. A bet can lose and still represent correct play if the market moved toward it.
Tennis moneyline positions in this odds band have accumulated +7.5% ROI across 2562 resolved bets on the board since tracking began.
This analysis was generated before play started by the same system that surfaces mispricings every day. The live board displays edges while they remain tradeable — once the match begins, the opportunity window closes.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Kristina Liutova
· WTA Tour · Tennis — flagged side Kristina Liutova
@ 3.10
81Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+9.7%
Shin
+8.4%
Power
+12.0%
Additive
-5.4%
Worst case
+12.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
Bwin
3.10
+7.2%
Sportingbet
3.10
+7.2%
Sportsinteraction
3.10
+7.2%
Superbet
3.05
+5.5%
Sx.Bet
3.03
+4.8%
Tailgate Exchange
3.03
+4.8%
Matchbook
3.01
+4.1%
Betway
3.00
+3.7%
Casumo
3.00
+3.7%
Unibet
3.00
+3.7%
Proline
3.00
+3.7%
Betjack
3.00
+3.7%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
3.10 odds → 32% implied win probability
35%
Fair win probability
+4.1% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+7.4% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
Proven Playbook matchesconditions are members-only
• early value + short odds 🔒 (Any) — +7.9% settled ROI on 41% winners
• consensus fade + late entry 🔒 (Any) — +6.3% settled ROI on 43% winners
• steam entry + home side 🔒 (Any) — +4.3% settled ROI on 42% winners
Past performance
Based on 441 bets exactly like this one over the last 60 days
+7.0% 🔒
Closing line value
+7.7% 🔒
Average return
+6.3% 🔒
Beat the closing line
39%
Win rate
Likely ROI range: +3.2% to +8.3% 🔒
No reliable edge either way: too close to break-even to call
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Jul 27, 12:51 UTC at 3.65 (+12.0% edge) → fair price at close 3.18 → closing-line value +2.4%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.65 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Ava Catanzarite vs Martina Okalova
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Aug 04, 2026 06:51 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).