WTA Tour · Tennis · Aug 05, 2026 15:00 UTC · avg book margin 5.5%
Alina KorneevavsEmma Navarro
Korneeva–Navarro moneyline: Hard Rock overpricing one outcome by 11.6% versus sharp consensus, 30 hours from serve
What happened: Final score: 2–0. The edge paid: the flagged side won, returning +1.40 units on a flat 1-unit stake. The market agreed with the signal: the price closed +9.5% better than where the edge was flagged (positive closing-line value — the strongest sign the edge was real). For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 34 hours after detection before the edge closed.
This story covers a single signal — right now the member board has 813 live signals across 368 matches, found the same way.
The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written 30.5 hours before start and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.
As of 30 hours before Alina Korneeva and Emma Navarro step onto court (WTA Tour), the moneyline market is fractured. Hard Rock is quoting decimal odds of 2.40 on one side—a 11.6% premium above where independent sharp operators have anchored their consensus line. The pricing tension remains unresolved at detection.
This outlier sits 2.5 standard deviations removed from the consensus cluster, marking a statistical break from ordinary market noise.
The consensus rests on alignment across 3 independent sharp sources, meaning the fair value behind this edge reflects professional convergence rather than a single operator's view.
Our Playbook identifies 4 historical patterns that match this configuration. The most profitable precedent has returned +10.6% ROI when settled.
Moneyline dislocations at mid-range odds in tennis have accumulated +7.5% cumulative ROI across 2562 settled bets tracked on our board—this signal occupies that exact segment.
Pricing gaps of this width have historically held for roughly 10 hours after detection before the market corrects, compressing as game time approaches.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Kristina Liutova
· WTA Tour · Tennis — flagged side Kristina Liutova
@ 3.10
81Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+9.7%
Shin
+8.4%
Power
+12.0%
Additive
-5.4%
Worst case
+12.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
Bwin
3.10
+7.2%
Sportingbet
3.10
+7.2%
Sportsinteraction
3.10
+7.2%
Superbet
3.05
+5.5%
Sx.Bet
3.03
+4.8%
Tailgate Exchange
3.03
+4.8%
Matchbook
3.01
+4.1%
Betway
3.00
+3.7%
Casumo
3.00
+3.7%
Unibet
3.00
+3.7%
Proline
3.00
+3.7%
Betjack
3.00
+3.7%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
3.10 odds → 32% implied win probability
35%
Fair win probability
+4.1% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+7.4% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
Proven Playbook matchesconditions are members-only
• early value + short odds 🔒 (Any) — +7.9% settled ROI on 41% winners
• consensus fade + late entry 🔒 (Any) — +6.3% settled ROI on 43% winners
• steam entry + home side 🔒 (Any) — +4.3% settled ROI on 42% winners
Past performance
Based on 441 bets exactly like this one over the last 60 days
+7.0% 🔒
Closing line value
+7.7% 🔒
Average return
+6.3% 🔒
Beat the closing line
39%
Win rate
Likely ROI range: +3.2% to +8.3% 🔒
No reliable edge either way: too close to break-even to call
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Jul 27, 12:51 UTC at 3.65 (+12.0% edge) → fair price at close 3.18 → closing-line value +2.4%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.65 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Alina Korneeva vs Emma Navarro
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Aug 05, 2026 20:41 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).