WTA Tour · Tennis · Aug 05, 2026 18:50 UTC · avg book margin 5.5%
Elise MertensvsAnna Bondar
Mertens–Bondar moneyline: Ninja Casino overprices one side by 6.6% versus sharp consensus, 10 hours before serve
What happened: Final score: 2–1. This one lost. A real edge is a long-run average, not a per-bet promise — we publish every outcome either way. The closing line moved against the signal (-4.7% CLV) — honest note: on this one, the market did not confirm the edge. For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 19 hours after detection before the edge closed.
Omenizer detected 3 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair near close — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.
The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written 9.5 hours before start and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.
At detection—10 hours before Elise Mertens vs Anna Bondar (WTA Tour)—the moneyline market reveals a pricing fracture. Ninja Casino has quoted decimal odds of 3.67 on one side, sitting 6.6% above where independent sharp operators have anchored their consensus. The gap persists unresolved as of writing.
This quotation lands 2.3 standard deviations beyond the cluster where other bookmakers have settled—a statistical rarity that signals genuine disagreement between retail and sharp markets, not routine variance.
The consensus baseline reflects agreement from 3 independent sharp sources, so the fair value underpinning this edge isn't any single operator's isolated opinion.
Our Playbook identifies 6 historical patterns that align with this signal's profile. The highest-performing precedent among them has returned +11.7% ROI when settled.
Tennis moneyline signals in this odds band have accumulated +8.2% cumulative ROI across 2625 settled bets tracked on our board—this edge fits squarely within that performance segment.
Pricing dislocations of this magnitude have historically compressed before first serve. At detection, such edges have typically persisted for roughly 10 hours before market correction narrows the gap.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Kristina Liutova
· WTA Tour · Tennis — flagged side Kristina Liutova
@ 3.10
81Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+9.7%
Shin
+8.4%
Power
+12.0%
Additive
-5.4%
Worst case
+12.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
Bwin
3.10
+7.2%
Sportingbet
3.10
+7.2%
Sportsinteraction
3.10
+7.2%
Superbet
3.05
+5.5%
Sx.Bet
3.03
+4.8%
Tailgate Exchange
3.03
+4.8%
Matchbook
3.01
+4.1%
Betway
3.00
+3.7%
Casumo
3.00
+3.7%
Unibet
3.00
+3.7%
Proline
3.00
+3.7%
Betjack
3.00
+3.7%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
3.10 odds → 32% implied win probability
35%
Fair win probability
+4.1% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+7.4% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
Proven Playbook matchesconditions are members-only
• early value + short odds 🔒 (Any) — +7.9% settled ROI on 41% winners
• consensus fade + late entry 🔒 (Any) — +6.3% settled ROI on 43% winners
• steam entry + home side 🔒 (Any) — +4.3% settled ROI on 42% winners
Past performance
Based on 441 bets exactly like this one over the last 60 days
+7.0% 🔒
Closing line value
+7.7% 🔒
Average return
+6.3% 🔒
Beat the closing line
39%
Win rate
Likely ROI range: +3.2% to +8.3% 🔒
No reliable edge either way: too close to break-even to call
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Jul 27, 12:51 UTC at 3.65 (+12.0% edge) → fair price at close 3.18 → closing-line value +2.4%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.65 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Elise Mertens vs Anna Bondar
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Aug 05, 2026 23:22 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).