ITF Men · Tennis · Aug 19, 2026 11:00 UTC · avg book margin 8.2%

Nicola SennvsLieven Mietusch

Senn vs Mietusch moneyline: 15.1% mispricing at 1xBet repriced toward the flagged side before start, despite the loss

How it ended, price by price: Nicola Senn vs Lieven Mietusch — full match recap with closing odds

Offered at 1xBet2.50Fair price2.17+15.1% above fair

This story covers a single signal — right now the member board has 727 live signals across 303 matches, found the same way.

The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written before the game and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.

The ITF Men moneyline between Nicola Senn and Lieven Mietusch contained a pricing inefficiency at 1xBet in the hours before the match: decimal 2.50 stood 15.1% above the sharp consensus. Our detection algorithm surfaced the gap before kickoff, creating an execution window for bettors at that quote.

Match result: 2–0. The flagged side lost. Single-match outcomes are inherently uncertain, and we publish detections regardless of settlement direction.

The signal's validity emerges from closing-line value: between detection and kickoff, the market repriced +1.6% in favor of the flagged side. CLV is the metric professionals track across time, because individual matches are noise but systematic repricing reveals information.

Detections in this segment—tennis moneyline, this odds band—have produced +6.3% ROI across 3237 settled signals on the board.

This analysis was generated before kickoff by the algorithm that scans for market inefficiencies daily. The live board surfaces flagged edges while execution windows remain open.

Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Kristina Liutova · WTA Tour · Tennis — flagged side Kristina Liutova @ 3.10
81 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+12.0%
Entry edge
+7.2%
Edge near close
+0.8%
Risk-adjusted edge
2.89
Fair price (no-vig)
3.65
Entry odds
Quality
95/100
Confidence
3
Sharp books
Prime signal
Class
Market state: Strong sharp consensus (3+ books) · priced from: Sharp price
Sizing
4.5%
Recommended stake
3.4%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+9.7%
Shin
+8.4%
Power
+12.0%
Additive
-5.4%
Worst case
+12.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
bwin3.10+7.2%
sportingbet3.10+7.2%
sportsinteraction3.10+7.2%
Superbet3.05+5.5%
SX.bet3.03+4.8%
Tailgate Exchange3.03+4.8%
Matchbook3.01+4.1%
Betway3.00+3.7%
Casumo3.00+3.7%
Unibet3.00+3.7%
Proline3.00+3.7%
betJACK3.00+3.7%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
3.10 odds → 32% implied win probability
35%
Fair win probability
+4.1% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+7.4% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Jul 27, 12:51 UTC at 3.65 (+12.0% edge) → fair price at close 3.18 → closing-line value +2.4%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.65 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for Nicola Senn vs Lieven Mietusch is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
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The strategies behind signals like this · More stories

Record settled · last updated Aug 20, 2026 15:32 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).