ITF Men · Tennis · Aug 19, 2026 08:00 UTC · avg book margin 8.7%

Nicolo ToffaninvsPaul Schmid

Toffanin–Schmid ITF moneyline: 18.7% mispricing at Coral moved toward the signal before start, though the result fell short

How it ended, price by price: Nicolo Toffanin vs Paul Schmid — full match recap with closing odds

Offered at Coral2.88Fair price2.43+18.7% above fair

This story covers a single signal — right now the member board has 727 live signals across 303 matches, found the same way.

The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written before the game and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.

At detection, the ITF Men moneyline between Nicolo Toffanin and Paul Schmid showed a pricing gap at Coral: decimal odds of 2.88 sat 18.7% above the sharp consensus. The board flagged this inefficiency before the match began, creating a window for execution at that price.

Match outcome: 2–1 against the flagged side. Single contests are binary outcomes around an edge, and we publish settled bets without filtering for results.

What matters for portfolio construction: closing-line value. Between detection and kickoff, the market had shifted +14.2% toward the flagged outcome—systematic repricing that professionals measure across time because individual results fluctuate while pricing movement compounds.

Tennis moneyline detections at mid-range odds have accumulated +5.8% ROI across 3171 settled signals on the board.

Detection runs before kickoff each day through the algorithm that surfaces mispricings. The live board displays flagged edges while execution remains available, not after settlement.

Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Kristina Liutova · WTA Tour · Tennis — flagged side Kristina Liutova @ 3.10
81 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+12.0%
Entry edge
+7.2%
Edge near close
+0.8%
Risk-adjusted edge
2.89
Fair price (no-vig)
3.65
Entry odds
Quality
95/100
Confidence
3
Sharp books
Prime signal
Class
Market state: Strong sharp consensus (3+ books) · priced from: Sharp price
Sizing
4.5%
Recommended stake
3.4%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+9.7%
Shin
+8.4%
Power
+12.0%
Additive
-5.4%
Worst case
+12.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
bwin3.10+7.2%
sportingbet3.10+7.2%
sportsinteraction3.10+7.2%
Superbet3.05+5.5%
SX.bet3.03+4.8%
Tailgate Exchange3.03+4.8%
Matchbook3.01+4.1%
Betway3.00+3.7%
Casumo3.00+3.7%
Unibet3.00+3.7%
Proline3.00+3.7%
betJACK3.00+3.7%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
3.10 odds → 32% implied win probability
35%
Fair win probability
+4.1% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+7.4% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Jul 27, 12:51 UTC at 3.65 (+12.0% edge) → fair price at close 3.18 → closing-line value +2.4%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.65 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for Nicolo Toffanin vs Paul Schmid is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
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The strategies behind signals like this · More stories

Record settled · last updated Aug 19, 2026 15:31 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).