ITF Men · Tennis · Aug 20, 2026 15:00 UTC · avg book margin 8.4%

Maxwell ExstedvsSantiago De la Fuente

The 12.2% pre-match edge lost the coin flip — but the market moved toward it before kickoff, which is the part that repeats

How it ended, price by price: Maxwell Exsted vs Santiago De la Fuente — full match recap with closing odds

Offered at Hard Rock2.65Fair price2.36+12.2% above fair

This story covers a single signal — right now the member board has 624 live signals across 258 matches, found the same way.

The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written before the game and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.

Before Maxwell Exsted vs Santiago De la Fuente (ITF Men) kicked off, our board flagged the moneyline market: one price sat 12.2% above the sharp consensus at Hard Rock, at decimal odds of 2.65. Bettors following the signal took that price while it lasted.

Final score: 2–0. The bet lost — single results are coin flips around the edge, and we publish them either way.

The part that matters long-run: by kickoff the market had moved toward the flagged side — the price closed +3.1% better than where we caught it (positive closing-line value). CLV is how professionals judge a bet, because results are noisy and closing prices are not.

Signals in this segment — tennis moneyline, mid-range odds — have returned +6.4% ROI across 3282 settled bets on our board.

This page was written by the same engine that flags edges like this every day, before kickoff — not after. The live board shows them while the window is still open.

Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Kristina Liutova · WTA Tour · Tennis — flagged side Kristina Liutova @ 3.10
81 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+12.0%
Entry edge
+7.2%
Edge near close
+0.8%
Risk-adjusted edge
2.89
Fair price (no-vig)
3.65
Entry odds
Quality
95/100
Confidence
3
Sharp books
Prime signal
Class
Market state: Strong sharp consensus (3+ books) · priced from: Sharp price
Sizing
4.5%
Recommended stake
3.4%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+9.7%
Shin
+8.4%
Power
+12.0%
Additive
-5.4%
Worst case
+12.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
bwin3.10+7.2%
sportingbet3.10+7.2%
sportsinteraction3.10+7.2%
Superbet3.05+5.5%
SX.bet3.03+4.8%
Tailgate Exchange3.03+4.8%
Matchbook3.01+4.1%
Betway3.00+3.7%
Casumo3.00+3.7%
Unibet3.00+3.7%
Proline3.00+3.7%
betJACK3.00+3.7%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
3.10 odds → 32% implied win probability
35%
Fair win probability
+4.1% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+7.4% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Jul 27, 12:51 UTC at 3.65 (+12.0% edge) → fair price at close 3.18 → closing-line value +2.4%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.65 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for Maxwell Exsted vs Santiago De la Fuente is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
See the live board — free account

The strategies behind signals like this · More stories

Record settled · last updated Aug 22, 2026 11:01 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).