ATP World Tour · Tennis · Aug 22, 2026 17:30 UTC · avg book margin 5.0%

Flavio CobollivsArthur Fils

SABA Sports is paying 19.0% over the sharp consensus in the moneyline market, 6 hours before first serve

Offered at SABA Sports1.76Fair price1.48+19.1% above fair

This story covers a single signal — right now the member board has 645 live signals across 262 matches, found the same way.

LIVE SIGNAL · exactly as it appears on the member board
84
Omen Score
+19.0%
Edge vs sharp consensus
95
Confidence
3
Sharp sources
Flagged side: Arthur Fils @ 1.76 — best price at SABA Sports
This is 1 of the live signals on the board right now · see them all with a free account
A SAMPLE OF BOOKMAKERS ON THIS MATCH · right now — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerSideOddsVs fair
saba-sportsArthur Fils1.76+19.0%
novigFlavio Cobolli3.51+2.3%
duelFlavio Cobolli3.40-0.9%
coolbetFlavio Cobolli3.35-2.4%
SX.betFlavio Cobolli3.35-2.4%
bet105Flavio Cobolli3.33-3.0%
4cxFlavio Cobolli3.32-3.3%
overtimemarketsFlavio Cobolli3.31-3.6%
Hard RockFlavio Cobolli3.30-3.9%
fanduelFlavio Cobolli3.30-3.9%
tabtouchFlavio Cobolli3.30-3.9%
Unibet (Australia)Flavio Cobolli3.30-3.9%
leyusportsFlavio Cobolli3.30-3.9%
betparxFlavio Cobolli3.30-3.9%
betnationFlavio Cobolli3.30-3.9%
unibetFlavio Cobolli3.30-3.9%
casumoFlavio Cobolli3.30-3.9%
NorthStar BetsFlavio Cobolli3.30-3.9%
Play EagleFlavio Cobolli3.30-3.9%
ProlineFlavio Cobolli3.30-3.9%

Margins and best-price rates for every book we track

6 hours before Flavio Cobolli vs Arthur Fils (ATP World Tour), bookmakers disagree about the moneyline market — and one side of that disagreement is currently priced 19.0% above the sharp consensus at SABA Sports, at decimal odds of 1.76. This is a live edge, not a post-mortem: the window is open as this page is generated.

One price sits 10.1 standard deviations away from where the rest of the market has settled — a genuine outlier, not ordinary noise.

3 independent sharp sources price this market, so the fair line behind that edge isn't one book's opinion.

This signal fits 2 historically profitable patterns from our Playbook — the strongest has realized +15.9% on settled bets.

Similar bets have paid before: signals in this exact segment — tennis moneyline, fav-range odds — have returned +9.1% ROI across 936 settled bets tracked on our board.

Edges like this don't wait for first serve: in this market, they have typically held for about 8 hours before the price corrects.

Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Kristina Liutova · WTA Tour · Tennis — flagged side Kristina Liutova @ 3.10
81 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+12.0%
Entry edge
+7.2%
Edge near close
+0.8%
Risk-adjusted edge
2.89
Fair price (no-vig)
3.65
Entry odds
Quality
95/100
Confidence
3
Sharp books
Prime signal
Class
Market state: Strong sharp consensus (3+ books) · priced from: Sharp price
Sizing
4.5%
Recommended stake
3.4%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+9.7%
Shin
+8.4%
Power
+12.0%
Additive
-5.4%
Worst case
+12.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
bwin3.10+7.2%
sportingbet3.10+7.2%
sportsinteraction3.10+7.2%
Superbet3.05+5.5%
SX.bet3.03+4.8%
Tailgate Exchange3.03+4.8%
Matchbook3.01+4.1%
Betway3.00+3.7%
Casumo3.00+3.7%
Unibet3.00+3.7%
Proline3.00+3.7%
betJACK3.00+3.7%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
3.10 odds → 32% implied win probability
35%
Fair win probability
+4.1% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+7.4% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Jul 27, 12:51 UTC at 3.65 (+12.0% edge) → fair price at close 3.18 → closing-line value +2.4%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.65 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for Flavio Cobolli vs Arthur Fils is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
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Live market record · data refreshes with this page · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).