ATP Challenger Tour · Tennis · Sep 13, 2026 20:30 UTC · avg book margin 5.7%
Andrew FentyvsRyan Seggerman
Fenty–Seggerman ATP Challenger: 14.7% moneyline mispricing at PointsBet AU closed with measurable edge before play
Omenizer detected 3 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair near close — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.
The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written before the game and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.
Hours before Andrew Fenty faced Ryan Seggerman on the ATP Challenger Tour, the detection system isolated a moneyline mispricing: PointsBet AU's decimal odds of 2.15 diverged 14.7% from the sharp consensus. That pricing gap created an execution window at the inflated quote.
Match result: 1–2. A flat 1-unit stake at the flagged price returned +1.15 units.
Single scorelines are noise. The metric that validates a signal is closing-line value—the repricing between detection and kickoff. At detection the quote was 2.15; by match start the market had shifted +7.9% toward the flagged side. That systematic drift toward your entry point is what professionals use to evaluate bet quality, since outcomes bounce randomly and market prices do not.
Across 4093 settled moneyline signals in this segment—tennis, mid-range odds—the aggregate return stands at +6.0% ROI.
The detection engine runs before kickoff, surfacing mispricing as it emerges in real time. This page was constructed at detection, not backward from the final score. The live board exposes these gaps while execution remains possible.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Jiri Lehecka vs Stefanos Tsitsipas
· ATP World Tour · Tennis — flagged side Stefanos Tsitsipas
@ 2.69
90Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+4.7%
Shin
+4.1%
Power
+6.0%
Additive
+4.7%
Balanced
-5.4%
Worst case
+6.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
Price is 3.3σ from market consensus.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
Betano
2.69
+5.1%
bet105
2.66
+3.9%
SX.bet
2.63
+2.7%
Matchbook
2.63
+2.7%
Prophet X
2.63
+2.7%
Tailgate Exchange
2.63
+2.7%
STN Sports
2.62
+2.3%
Betfair Exchange
2.62
+2.3%
Betfair Exchange (AU)
2.62
+2.3%
4cx
2.61
+1.9%
Novig
2.60
+1.6%
Winpot
2.60
+1.6%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.69 odds → 37% implied win probability
39%
Fair win probability
+6.2% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+3.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Sep 03, 13:10 UTC at 3.00 (+6.0% edge) → fair price at close 2.63 → closing-line value +7.5%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.00 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Andrew Fenty vs Ryan Seggerman
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Sep 15, 2026 17:51 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).