Kostyuk–Townsend moneyline at 4cx trades 12.1% soft to sharp consensus, 12 hours before first serve
Omenizer detected 103 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair at last refresh — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.
LIVE SIGNAL · exactly as it appears on the member board
83
Omen Score
+12.1%
Edge vs sharp consensus
93
Confidence
3
Sharp sources
Flagged side: Taylor Townsend
@ 3.60 — best price at 4cx
At detection—12 hours before Marta Kostyuk faces Taylor Townsend on the WTA Tour—a divergence has opened across the moneyline market. 4cx is offering decimal odds of 3.60 on one side, a price sitting 12.1% above the fair value that independent sharp operators have converged on. This captures active market data before first serve, not settlement analysis after the final point.
The 4cx quote lands 3.1 standard deviations from the professional consensus cluster—a statistical distance that signals structural mispricing rather than ordinary market noise.
This consensus baseline draws from 3 independent sharp sources, anchoring the fair line across distributed professional models rather than isolating it to any single bookmaker's view.
The signal aligns with 1 historically profitable pattern in our database—the strongest comparable pattern has delivered +8.6% return on settled wagers.
Tennis moneyline signals in this odds range have posted +5.9% ROI across 4119 settled bets tracked on our board.
Mispricings at this scale do not typically persist to first serve. In comparable moneyline markets, historical edges have compressed toward consensus within roughly 7 hours of detection.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Jiri Lehecka vs Stefanos Tsitsipas
· ATP World Tour · Tennis — flagged side Stefanos Tsitsipas
@ 2.69
90Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+4.7%
Shin
+4.1%
Power
+6.0%
Additive
+4.7%
Balanced
-5.4%
Worst case
+6.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
Price is 3.3σ from market consensus.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
Betano
2.69
+5.1%
bet105
2.66
+3.9%
SX.bet
2.63
+2.7%
Matchbook
2.63
+2.7%
Prophet X
2.63
+2.7%
Tailgate Exchange
2.63
+2.7%
STN Sports
2.62
+2.3%
Betfair Exchange
2.62
+2.3%
Betfair Exchange (AU)
2.62
+2.3%
4cx
2.61
+1.9%
Novig
2.60
+1.6%
Winpot
2.60
+1.6%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.69 odds → 37% implied win probability
39%
Fair win probability
+6.2% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+3.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Sep 03, 13:10 UTC at 3.00 (+6.0% edge) → fair price at close 2.63 → closing-line value +7.5%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.00 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Marta Kostyuk vs Taylor Townsend
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Live market record · data refreshes with this page · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).