WTA Tour · Tennis · Sep 16, 2026 08:00 UTC · avg book margin 6.9%
Noemi BasilettivsJulie Struplova
Basiletti–Struplova moneyline at CampoBet trades 5.6% soft to sharp consensus, 2 hours before first serve
What happened: Final score: 2–0. This one lost. A real edge is a long-run average, not a per-bet promise — we publish every outcome either way. The closing line moved against the signal (-3.2% CLV) — honest note: on this one, the market did not confirm the edge. For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 4 hours after detection before the edge closed.
Omenizer detected 9 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair near close — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.
The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written 2.5 hours before start and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.
At detection—2 hours before Noemi Basiletti faces Julie Struplova on the WTA Tour—a divergence has opened across the moneyline market. CampoBet is offering decimal odds of 2.12 on one side, a price sitting 5.6% below the fair value that independent sharp operators have converged on. This captures active market data before first serve, not settlement analysis after the final point.
The CampoBet quote lands 2.7 standard deviations from the professional consensus cluster—a statistical distance that signals structural mispricing rather than ordinary market noise.
This consensus baseline draws from 3 independent sharp sources, anchoring the fair line across distributed professional models rather than isolating it to any single bookmaker's view.
The signal aligns with 2 historically profitable patterns in our database—the strongest comparable pattern has delivered +9.1% return on settled wagers.
Tennis moneyline signals in this odds range have posted +6.0% ROI across 4103 settled bets tracked on our board.
Mispricings at this scale do not typically persist to first serve. In comparable moneyline markets, historical edges have compressed toward consensus within roughly 7 hours of detection.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Jiri Lehecka vs Stefanos Tsitsipas
· ATP World Tour · Tennis — flagged side Stefanos Tsitsipas
@ 2.69
90Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+4.7%
Shin
+4.1%
Power
+6.0%
Additive
+4.7%
Balanced
-5.4%
Worst case
+6.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
Price is 3.3σ from market consensus.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
Betano
2.69
+5.1%
bet105
2.66
+3.9%
SX.bet
2.63
+2.7%
Matchbook
2.63
+2.7%
Prophet X
2.63
+2.7%
Tailgate Exchange
2.63
+2.7%
STN Sports
2.62
+2.3%
Betfair Exchange
2.62
+2.3%
Betfair Exchange (AU)
2.62
+2.3%
4cx
2.61
+1.9%
Novig
2.60
+1.6%
Winpot
2.60
+1.6%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.69 odds → 37% implied win probability
39%
Fair win probability
+6.2% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+3.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Sep 03, 13:10 UTC at 3.00 (+6.0% edge) → fair price at close 2.63 → closing-line value +7.5%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.00 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Noemi Basiletti vs Julie Struplova
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Sep 16, 2026 10:02 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).