ITF Men · Tennis · Sep 15, 2026 09:00 UTC · avg book margin 8.7%

Guillaume DalmassovsDamien Clerc

Dalmasso–Clerc ITF final: 17.6% moneyline mispricing at DraftKings closed before play, CLV validated the catch

How it ended, price by price: Guillaume Dalmasso vs Damien Clerc — full match recap with closing odds

Offered at DraftKings4.00Fair price3.40+17.6% above fair

Omenizer detected 23 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair near close — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.

The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written before the game and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.

Hours ahead of Guillaume Dalmasso vs Damien Clerc on the ITF Men circuit, the detection system isolated a moneyline mispricing: DraftKings quoted decimal odds of 4.00, sitting 17.6% beyond the sharp consensus. That window permitted execution at the inflated price before the match began.

The scoreline came 0–2. A flat 1-unit stake at the flagged quote returned +3.00 units.

Single outcomes are noise; closing-line value is the professional standard. The market repriced +18.1% toward the flagged side between detection and kickoff—that systematic drift toward your entry is what separates signal from variance, since final scores bounce randomly and quoted prices do not.

The detection engine that flagged this mispricing runs before kickoff, identifying pricing gaps as they emerge. This page was assembled at detection, not after the final whistle. The live board surfaces these inefficiencies while the execution window is still open.

Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Jiri Lehecka vs Stefanos Tsitsipas · ATP World Tour · Tennis — flagged side Stefanos Tsitsipas @ 2.69
90 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+6.0%
Entry edge
+5.1%
Edge near close
+0.5%
Risk-adjusted edge
2.56
Fair price (no-vig)
3.00
Entry odds
Quality
94/100
Confidence
3
Sharp books
Prime signal
Class
Market state: Strong sharp consensus (3+ books) · priced from: Sharp price
Sizing
0.97%
Recommended stake
3.0%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+4.7%
Shin
+4.1%
Power
+6.0%
Additive
+4.7%
Balanced
-5.4%
Worst case
+6.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
Price is 3.3σ from market consensus.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
Betano2.69+5.1%
bet1052.66+3.9%
SX.bet2.63+2.7%
Matchbook2.63+2.7%
Prophet X2.63+2.7%
Tailgate Exchange2.63+2.7%
STN Sports2.62+2.3%
Betfair Exchange2.62+2.3%
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.62+2.3%
4cx2.61+1.9%
Novig2.60+1.6%
Winpot2.60+1.6%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.69 odds → 37% implied win probability
39%
Fair win probability
+6.2% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+3.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Sep 03, 13:10 UTC at 3.00 (+6.0% edge) → fair price at close 2.63 → closing-line value +7.5%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.00 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for Guillaume Dalmasso vs Damien Clerc is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
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Record settled · last updated Sep 15, 2026 13:22 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).