WTA Tour · Tennis · Sep 16, 2026 09:10 UTC · avg book margin 7.0%

Francesca JonesvsMona Barthel

Jones vs Barthel moneyline at boomers: 12.0% above sharp consensus 10 hours before serve

What happened: Final score: 0–2. The edge paid: the flagged side won, returning +3.25 units on a flat 1-unit stake. The closing line moved against the signal (-1.4% CLV) — honest note: on this one, the market did not confirm the edge. For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 14 hours after detection before the edge closed.

How it ended, price by price: Francesca Jones vs Mona Barthel — full match recap with closing odds

Offered at boomers3.70Fair price3.30+12.0% above fair

Omenizer detected 79 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair near close — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.

The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written 10.3 hours before start and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.

At detection—10 hours before Francesca Jones and Mona Barthel compete on the WTA Tour—boomers has priced one side of the moneyline at decimal 3.70, sitting 12.0% above where independent sharp operators have settled their consensus. The mispricing exists in active market time, not post-match replay.

The boomers quote registers 2.5 standard deviations from consensus—a distance that signals structural divergence rather than normal market churn.

The consensus fair line rests on input from 3 independent sharp sources, distributing the baseline across professional models rather than isolating it to one book.

Tennis moneyline bets in the mid-odds range tracking this pattern have generated +6.0% ROI over 4102 completed wagers on our historical ledger.

Edges of this scale rarely survive to serve: historically, comparable mispricings in this segment have compressed toward consensus within roughly 7 hours of detection.

Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Jiri Lehecka vs Stefanos Tsitsipas · ATP World Tour · Tennis — flagged side Stefanos Tsitsipas @ 2.69
90 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+6.0%
Entry edge
+5.1%
Edge near close
+0.5%
Risk-adjusted edge
2.56
Fair price (no-vig)
3.00
Entry odds
Quality
94/100
Confidence
3
Sharp books
Prime signal
Class
Market state: Strong sharp consensus (3+ books) · priced from: Sharp price
Sizing
0.97%
Recommended stake
3.0%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+4.7%
Shin
+4.1%
Power
+6.0%
Additive
+4.7%
Balanced
-5.4%
Worst case
+6.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
Price is 3.3σ from market consensus.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
Betano2.69+5.1%
bet1052.66+3.9%
SX.bet2.63+2.7%
Matchbook2.63+2.7%
Prophet X2.63+2.7%
Tailgate Exchange2.63+2.7%
STN Sports2.62+2.3%
Betfair Exchange2.62+2.3%
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.62+2.3%
4cx2.61+1.9%
Novig2.60+1.6%
Winpot2.60+1.6%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.69 odds → 37% implied win probability
39%
Fair win probability
+6.2% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+3.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Sep 03, 13:10 UTC at 3.00 (+6.0% edge) → fair price at close 2.63 → closing-line value +7.5%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.00 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for Francesca Jones vs Mona Barthel is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
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The strategies behind signals like this · More stories

Record settled · last updated Sep 16, 2026 11:21 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).