WTA Tour · Tennis · Sep 13, 2026 15:00 UTC

Xiaodi YouvsVictoria Bosio

You–Bosio (WTA): favbet totals quote 9.1% high of sharp consensus at 2.27, 5 hours to serve

What happened: Final score: 13–8. The edge paid: the flagged side won, returning +1.27 units on a flat 1-unit stake. The market agreed with the signal: the price closed +1.0% better than where the edge was flagged (positive closing-line value — the strongest sign the edge was real). For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 4 hours after detection before the edge closed.

How it ended, price by price: Xiaodi You vs Victoria Bosio — full match recap with closing odds

Offered at favbet2.27Fair price2.08+9.1% above fair

This story covers a single signal — right now the member board has 686 live signals across 275 matches, found the same way.

The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written 5.1 hours before start and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.

At detection—5 hours before Xiaodi You faces Victoria Bosio on the WTA Tour—favbet's totals pricing has drifted away from where sharp operators have clustered their fair value. The favbet quote at decimal 2.27 sits 9.1% above the consensus benchmark. This is active pricing data captured before the match begins.

When bookmakers scatter across a single market, that scatter reveals which side carries mispricing. The sharp consensus method identifies the outlier.

Consensus estimates here draw from 30 independent sharp sources, so the fair line reflects distributed professional judgment rather than any single operator's model.

The signal aligns with 5 historically profitable patterns tracked in our Playbook—the most powerful has returned +21.6% on settled bets.

Mispricings at this magnitude typically compress before first serve. In this market segment, comparable edges have historically held for roughly 2 hours from detection before closing.

Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Jiri Lehecka vs Stefanos Tsitsipas · ATP World Tour · Tennis — flagged side Stefanos Tsitsipas @ 2.69
90 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+6.0%
Entry edge
+5.1%
Edge near close
+0.5%
Risk-adjusted edge
2.56
Fair price (no-vig)
3.00
Entry odds
Quality
94/100
Confidence
3
Sharp books
Prime signal
Class
Market state: Strong sharp consensus (3+ books) · priced from: Sharp price
Sizing
0.97%
Recommended stake
3.0%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+4.7%
Shin
+4.1%
Power
+6.0%
Additive
+4.7%
Balanced
-5.4%
Worst case
+6.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
Price is 3.3σ from market consensus.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
Betano2.69+5.1%
bet1052.66+3.9%
SX.bet2.63+2.7%
Matchbook2.63+2.7%
Prophet X2.63+2.7%
Tailgate Exchange2.63+2.7%
STN Sports2.62+2.3%
Betfair Exchange2.62+2.3%
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.62+2.3%
4cx2.61+1.9%
Novig2.60+1.6%
Winpot2.60+1.6%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.69 odds → 37% implied win probability
39%
Fair win probability
+6.2% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+3.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Sep 03, 13:10 UTC at 3.00 (+6.0% edge) → fair price at close 2.63 → closing-line value +7.5%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.00 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for Xiaodi You vs Victoria Bosio is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
See the live board — free account

The strategies behind signals like this · More stories

Record settled · last updated Sep 13, 2026 20:36 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).