You–Charaeva moneyline: 4cx mispriced 8.8% soft versus sharp sources, 7 hours from serve
Omenizer detected 22 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair at last refresh — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.
LIVE SIGNAL · exactly as it appears on the member board
79
Omen Score
+12.7%
Edge vs sharp consensus
94
Confidence
3
Sharp sources
Flagged side: Xiaodi You
@ 3.17 — best price at 4cx
At detection—7 hours before Xiaodi You meets Alina Charaeva on the WTA Tour—the moneyline market has split. 4cx is quoting decimal 3.06 on one outcome, a price sitting 8.8% below the consensus fair value anchored by independent sharp operators. The mispricing is live market data, captured before the first serve.
The 4cx quote sits 4.1 standard deviations away from the consensus cluster—a statistical gap that signals genuine structural mispricing rather than ordinary market drift.
The consensus fair line draws from 3 independent sharp sources, distributing the benchmark across multiple professional models rather than anchoring to any single bookmaker.
This setup aligns with 1 pattern in our Playbook history. The strongest comparable pattern has realized +9.1% return on settled bets.
Tennis moneyline signals priced in the mid-odds range—the exact segment this falls into—have tracked +6.4% ROI across 4004 settled outcomes on our record.
Mispricings at this scale typically do not persist until serve. Comparable edges in this market segment have historically compressed toward fair value in roughly 7 hours from detection.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Jiri Lehecka vs Stefanos Tsitsipas
· ATP World Tour · Tennis — flagged side Stefanos Tsitsipas
@ 2.69
90Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+4.7%
Shin
+4.1%
Power
+6.0%
Additive
+4.7%
Balanced
-5.4%
Worst case
+6.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
Price is 3.3σ from market consensus.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
Betano
2.69
+5.1%
bet105
2.66
+3.9%
SX.bet
2.63
+2.7%
Matchbook
2.63
+2.7%
Prophet X
2.63
+2.7%
Tailgate Exchange
2.63
+2.7%
STN Sports
2.62
+2.3%
Betfair Exchange
2.62
+2.3%
Betfair Exchange (AU)
2.62
+2.3%
4cx
2.61
+1.9%
Novig
2.60
+1.6%
Winpot
2.60
+1.6%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.69 odds → 37% implied win probability
39%
Fair win probability
+6.2% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+3.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Sep 03, 13:10 UTC at 3.00 (+6.0% edge) → fair price at close 2.63 → closing-line value +7.5%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.00 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Xiaodi You vs Alina Charaeva
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Live market record · data refreshes with this page · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).