Avanesyan–Charaeva totals: DraftKings overpriced by 5.6% versus sharp sources, 21 hours to first serve
Omenizer detected 2 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair at last refresh — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.
At detection—21 hours before Elina Avanesyan faces Alina Charaeva on the WTA Tour—the totals market shows a measurable gap. DraftKings is quoting decimal odds of 2.75 on one side, a price positioned 5.6% above the consensus fair value anchored by independent sharp operators. The mispricing exists in real market time, captured before the opening serve.
When independent sharp books cluster around one price and a retail operator drifts away from that consensus, the divergence signals structural mispricing rather than ordinary market variance.
The consensus fair line draws from 9 independent sharp sources, distributing the benchmark across multiple professional models rather than anchoring to any single operator's view.
This configuration matches 2 historically profitable patterns in our Playbook—the strongest has delivered +20.1% return on settled bets.
Mispricings of this magnitude do not typically persist to first serve. Comparable edges in this market segment have historically compressed toward consensus within roughly 2 hours from detection.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Jiri Lehecka vs Stefanos Tsitsipas
· ATP World Tour · Tennis — flagged side Stefanos Tsitsipas
@ 2.69
90Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+4.7%
Shin
+4.1%
Power
+6.0%
Additive
+4.7%
Balanced
-5.4%
Worst case
+6.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
Price is 3.3σ from market consensus.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
Betano
2.69
+5.1%
bet105
2.66
+3.9%
SX.bet
2.63
+2.7%
Matchbook
2.63
+2.7%
Prophet X
2.63
+2.7%
Tailgate Exchange
2.63
+2.7%
STN Sports
2.62
+2.3%
Betfair Exchange
2.62
+2.3%
Betfair Exchange (AU)
2.62
+2.3%
4cx
2.61
+1.9%
Novig
2.60
+1.6%
Winpot
2.60
+1.6%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.69 odds → 37% implied win probability
39%
Fair win probability
+6.2% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+3.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Sep 03, 13:10 UTC at 3.00 (+6.0% edge) → fair price at close 2.63 → closing-line value +7.5%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.00 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Elina Avanesyan vs Alina Charaeva
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Live market record · data refreshes with this page · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).